THE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IS OFFICIALLY DECLARING THE START OF THE 2026 DRY SEASON
At this time, the atmosphere over the region has transitioned to its drier state following a gradual transition from the Wet into the Dry Season. During early January, the climatic patterns and features (a relatively strong North Atlantic Sub-Tropical Pressure cell combined with the shift in upper-level wind direction to mostly westerlies winds) have led to an observed reduction in the frequency of showery and/or rainy weather over Trinidad and Tobago. Additionally, Dry Season synoptic features, such as passing mid-latitude frontal systems have induced moist low-level perturbations over the region.
The Dry Season occurs once the TTMS observes the following synoptic features:
The intensification and equatorward migration of the North Atlantic Sub-Tropical High-Pressure cell.
Strengthened Trade-wind inversion (west Africa, central tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean)
Upper-Level Westerly winds.
Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in its southernmost position across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
During the Dry Season, the country experiences significantly reduced rainfall amounts as compared to the Wet Season; however, the Dry Season is not totally devoid of rainfall. At this time, rainfall events across Trinidad and Tobago are not associated with wet season systems (i.e. ITCZ, tropical waves, or tropical cyclone activity).
The Dry Season is generally characterized by reduced moisture; increased atmospheric stability, fewer deep clouds, less frequent rainfall events, warm days and cool nights, strengthening trade winds tied to a general shift in the surface wind direction to mostly easterlies to north easterlies, all of which Trinidad and Tobago is experiencing.
Likely impacts of the 2026 Dry Season:
The initial part of the dry season, January to March, is expected to be mostly wetter than normal and warmer than usual, which may result in the following:
Less vegetative stress due to relatively less surface dryness.
A positive impact on surface and groundwater recharge and stream flow rates.
An increase in the breeding areas for insect vectors, such as mosquitoes, due to uncovered water storage devices and water pooling in drains, low-lying areas and roof guttering.
A decrease in the potential for bush, forest and landfill fires especially during January to March.
As the Dry Season progresses, the latter part of the season April through May is expected to be as wet as usual, which may result in the following:
While the potential for bush, forest and landfill fires might be reduced, it still remains.
Reduction in ground water recharge, surface water flows and rain-fed water availability.
There is an increased probability for the occurrence of Saharan dust-haze events, which will reduce air quality.
In light of the foregoing, the public is advised to conserve, store and manage water in a sustainable manner. It is highly recommended that the public comply with the Agricultural Fires Act or refrain from burning rubbish in grassy or forested areas during the Dry Season. Relevant agencies and ministries are advised to take measures to mitigate the potential impacts of the Dry Season.
